This feature initially ran in late January. We’re reposting because there’s a little awards show this Sunday where they give out golden statues.
Another year, another boring round of Oscars, right? Not quite.
After being hilariously trolled by last year’s #OscarsSoWhite campaign — not to mention, you know, 2016 host Chris Rock — the Academy made an effort to shake things up by diversifying its membership, adding 683 new members, a pool that breaks down to 46% female and 41% people of color. Judging from this year’s offerings, it worked.
Then again, it helps that Hollywood also took note. Although the year started out rough, with miserable blockbusters and reboots piling on top of one another like oozing summer garbage on New York City streets, 2016 came to a close with some wildly diverse stories, from Moonlight to Hidden Figures to Fences to Lion to Loving. That’s only a handful!
The Oscars reflect that this year. Sure, some might argue the 14 nominations for Damien Chazelle’s La La Land are a bit much — not this writer, who can’t stop singing “Someone in the Crowd” every morning in the shower — but they’re also forgetting that not every would-be juggernaut actually walks home as one. Just ask Richard Linklater…
When it comes to this ceremony, it’s anyone’s game, and looking ahead, it’s hard to really scoff at any of the potential Best Picture winners. They’re all bonafide critical darlings — hell, one particular win for one less favorable filmmaker could be seen as an unlikely Hollywood redemption story — and that’s the best case scenario, right?
Well, it sure as hell beats seeing Deadpool on there. Nevertheless, take a closer look with us as we breakdown each category and try and decide who should win and who will win. Some believe there’s a science to this shit, and they’re goddamn fools.
It’s nothing but a crapshoot.
–Michael Roffman
Editor-in-Chief
Best Animated Feature Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
My Life As A Zucchini
Moana
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
What should win: Kubo and the Two Strings
What will win: Moana
In a surprisingly stacked year for animated features (Finding Dory is a notable, high-grossing exclusion from this year’s nominations, for starters), this race will probably come down to familiarity over general quality. That’s not to say there are necessarily any bad entries here; Disney showed up in a big way, and their dual nominations speak to the increasing quality of their in-house work. But although we see the incredibly popular Moana taking home the prize — especially as it’s picking up steam in the weeks following the Golden Globes’ pick for Zootopia — it’s Laika’s gorgeously ambitious stop-motion/CG hybrid Kubo and the Two Strings that we favor most.
–Dominick Suzanne-Mayer
Best Foreign Language Film
A Man Called Ove
Land of Mine
Tanna
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann
What should win: Toni Erdmann
What will win: A Man Called Ove
Okay, so maybe Toni Erdmann was too good for this world. It absolutely could have been nominated for Best Picture. Or Best Director. Or Best Original Screenplay. Or Best Actor. Or Best Actress… For Christ’s sake Oscar, did the 160-minute runtime bum you out before you gave this movie a shot!?! IT HAS MORE HEARTBREAK AND HILARITY IN IT THAN ALL THE OTHER NOMINEES! YOU SHOULD FEEL SO LUCKY TO HAVE SOMEONE LIKE TONI IN YOUR LIFE! HE GOT US TO SING WHITNEY HOUSTON AGAIN! TAKE LIFE LESS SERIOUSLY! THIS FILM HAS A 40-MINUTE NAKED BRUNCH THAT IS QUITE POSSIBLY THE FUNNIEST AND MOST BIZARRE COMEDY SCENE THIS SIDE OF A BLAKE EDWARDS FARCE LIKE 10 OR THE PARTY.
Sorry, where was I? Oh! Best Foreign Language Film. Toni Erdman, simply put, rules. It’s a new absurdist classic; devastatingly, deliriously human. It took Cannes by storm, had a minor release from Sony Picture Classics last fall, and was more-or-less snubbed by the Academy. So here, right here, is where deserving praise can be heaped on the eccentrically unforgettable work by Maren Ade. Before the inevitable American remake. But the Academy’s probably gonna reward the more middle-ground Man Called Ove, which is fine … but he’s not Toni.
–Blake Goble
Best Documentary Feature
O.J.: Made in America
Fire at Sea
Life, Animated
I Am Not Your Negro
The 13th
What should win: O.J.: Made in America
What will win: O.J.: Made in America
A look back at the last 20 years of Best Documentary Oscars is not without its share of classics. Films like Man on Wire, Searching for Sugar Man, and March of the Penguins turned their subjects into something bigger than the screen, the kind of stories friends would tell each other over drinks, its subject matter so captivating that it demands to be shared. O.J.: Made in America is something different. Like Amy Winehouse and Muhammad Ali (who also saw docs about them win statues), the story of O.J. was already known. Hell, it wasn’t even the only acclaimed presentation of his life this year. But O.J.: Made in America might have been the most ambitious film of 2016 regardless for genre. Running 467 minutes over five parts, it does its damndest to tell the whole story of O.J. Simpson, letting it sprawl to cover greater issues of race in America, landing on something so insightful and thorough that no other documentary released this year stands a chance in hell.
–Philip Cosores
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Best Cinematography
Linus Sandgren, La La Land
Bradford Young, Arrival
Rodrigo Prieto, Silence
James Laxton, Moonlight *
Greig Fraser, Lion
Who should win: Linus Sandgren, La La Land
Who will win: Linus Sandgren, La La Land
La La Land has proven to be a “your mileage may vary” kind of film, but even its detractors can’t deny that this thing looks good. Get used to this sentiment, because you’ll be seeing it a lot in the entries to come. Linus Sandgren should and will win for his sumptuous take on Los Angeles—that dizzying final sequence alone makes him a sure thing—so let’s take a minute to rhapsodize about some of the year’s most expertly captured films. Silence? Breathtaking. Arrival? Awesome, and in the most literal sense of the word. Moonlight? The only potential spoiler here, as James Laxton does as fine a job capturing real-world Miami as Sandgren does capturing dream-world L.A. Jackie? Inexplicably shut out. Lion? Yeah, sure. This category may be as sure a thing as things come, but the competition sure is pretty.
–Allison Shoemaker
Best Editing
Tom Cross, La La Land
Joe Walker, Arrival
John Gilbert, Hacksaw Ridge
Jake Roberts, Hell or High Water
Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders, Moonlight
Who should win: Tom Cross, La La Land
Who will win: Tom Cross, La La Land
Tom Cross already won a very deserving Oscar for editing Chazelle’s Whiplash. That thing was cut like a machine. With edits tighter than a snare drum, Cross showed an affinity for hard, rhythmic film editing that would have made Bob Fosse choke on a cigarette. To see Cross play with old staples like layered imagery, cross-fades, and long-ish takes that recalls films like An American in Paris was nothing short of eye-catching. A feast for the film nerds in all of us. There’s nothing wrong with being flashy, especially in a film about showbiz, and Cross demonstrated his knack for musical movement again with La La Land. Is it revolutionary? No, of course not. Does it get the A in film history? You betcha. This baby’s assembled in a way anyone can see and easily appreciate. So while Arrival was edited to be slow and steady, or Moonlight was cut to be abrupt and hallucinatory, Cross was like Edward Scissorhands at the edit bay. Take that, haters of quick cuts.
–Blake Goble
Best Original Screenplay
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou, The Lobster *
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Who should win: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea
Who will win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Well, the voters put themselves in one hell of a pickle this year, no? Good fucking god. From top to bottom, there’s no denying why each name and screenplay is under this banner for 2016. Mike Mills’ delicately placed family turmoil amid a bristling cultural revolution in America with 20th Century Women. Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou wrote the greatest Black Mirror episode with The Lobster, one that left us sucking down two Xanax as opposed to four. Taylor Sheridan grilled up cowboy ethics and class issues through the BBQ that is Hell of High Water. Kenneth Lonergan welded grief and fortitude with humor and heart to masterful results with Manchester by the Sea. And finally, Damien Chazelle turned Los Angeles into a magical, dreamy world again with La La Land. Voters are going to go with the latter, no doubt, but if they want to honor gold with gold, the award should go to … and this one requires much deliberation and thought … Lonergan. Here’s hoping they throw the curve ball toward Boston.
–Michael Roffman
Best Adapted Screenplay
Eric Heisserer, Arrival
Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McRaney, Moonlight
Luke Davies, Lion
August Wilson, Fences
Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Who should win: Barry Jenkins, Tarell Alvin McRaney, Moonlight
Who will win: August Wilson, Fences
No woman has won any screenplay award since 2007 when Diablo Cody won for Juno, and none has won in Adapted since Diana Ossana shared the award in 2005 for Brokeback Mountain. And that streak looks unlikely to end this year, with Hidden Figures scribe Allison Schroeder a major underdog in this year’s field. Though Arrival has managed to earn noms for both creative and technical categories, the latter of those areas figures to be its strongest chances. And with Lion just happy to be nominated, that really leaves a two-horse race: Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney for Moonlight and August Wilson for Fences. Moonlight might be the greater achievement, having actually adapted a story into a screenplay (whereas Fences is already a play), but the chance to award Wilson for his beloved work a dozen years after his death might be too difficult of an opportunity for the Academy to pass up.
–Philip Cosores
Best Original Song
“City of Stars”, La La Land
“How Far I’ll Go”, Moana
“Can’t Stop the Feeling”, Trolls
“The Empty Chair”, Jim: The James Foley Story
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”, La La Land
Who should win: “City of Stars”, La La Land
Who will win: “City of Stars”, La La Land
The best part of the Best Original Song award is that it provides the Oscar’s equivalent to their musical guest. It could be big names like Adele or Celine Dion singing the hearts out or it could create Oscar oddball moments where the likes of Juicy J or Elliott Smith take the stage. This year is not without its star power, either, with Justin Timberlake nominated for his massive Trolls single “Can’t Stop the Feeling”, Sting up for some movie called Jim: The James Foley Story that we’re pretty sure the Academy made up just to get the former Police frontman up on stage, and Hamilton man-of-the-moment Lin-Manuel Miranda for a song from Moana that’s sung by Auli’i Cravalho on film but will probably be performed live by the soundtrack singer Alessia Cara. That sounds like a good show, right? But really what everyone will want to see is Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone giving the live version of their adored La La Land songs, immediately followed by the song’s writers and composers, Justin Hurwitz , Benj Pasek, and Justin Paul walking home with statues. This is Hollywood, and “City of Stars” speaks to just about everyone voting for this thing.
–Philip Cosores
Best Original Score
Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
Nicholas Britell, Moonlight
Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka, Lion
Mica Levi, Jackie *
Thomas Newman, Passengers
Who should win: Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
Who will win: Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
Looking to toss down a little money? Go for this one. There’s absolutely no way Justin Hurwitz doesn’t win this award. Not only does he deserve it, if only for that piano melody behind “City of Stars”, but it’s a widely acclaimed musical with 14 jaw-dropping nominations. Granted, Nicholas Britell’s work on Moonlight is brilliant, not to mention our 2014 Composer of the Year Mica Levi, whose work on Jackie is a character in itself, but way too many voters are going to see “Score” see the name La La Land, circle it, and then move on. Again, it’s all deserved, but, um, well, there you are…
–Michael Roffman
Best Visual Effects
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Kubo and the Two Strings
What should win: Kubo and the Two Strings
What will win: Anyone’s guess?
This one’s a total toss up. Odds are it’ll rightfully go to Kubo and the Two Strings given the breadth of work Laika put into the film, but the Oscars love rewarding the box office titans in this category, which means we might see a single win for Disney’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. Then again, The Jungle Book was also a huge hit and, as my fellow Film Editor put it so eloquently, “made singing animals actually look like a real thing.” As for the other two, Doctor Strange did some commendable work and Deepwater Horizon is the only nomination here grounded in actual reality, so if the voters were swayed by natural explosions, there’s that. If you insist on gambling in this category, go with Kubo. As for us, we’re tossing our hands up this time.
—Michael Roffman
Best Makeup/Hairstyling
Suicide Squad
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
What should win: A Man Called Ove
What will win: A Man Called Ove
Makeup’s a helluva category. Seriously! It still exists in this strange moment where more and more filmmakers are leaning on digital alterations (if not fully articulated CGI creations) for body change. Critics and audiences tend to either wince at aging makeup, or note the rubber factor in genre films – the two best places for them in this day and age. Sorry to channel the griping of an old man or something, but it’s kinda true.
Regardless, let’s look at the offerings here. One, Suicide Squad as a movie is dumb as a rock, and the creature effects and makeup looked like a can of Chunky soup thrown at a screen. And the only notable hairstyling served to make Margot Robbie a bad girl pixie with pigtails. Hard pass. Then there’s Star Trek Beyond, which involves a nifty sight gag involving this one alien that’s hiding some MacGuffin behind her head, but the film’s such visual viscera that it will likely have gone unnoticed.
So, yeah, we’ll give this one to the Swedish film, A Man Called Ove, on the grounds of sheer likeability and respectability. Err, the film, not the makeup. But liking the former makes it easier to reward the latter. Old age makeup is nothing special, but, are Oscar voters gonna feel comfortable giving an award to the Suicide Squad? Admit it, you’re laughing at the fact that it’s nominated already!
–Blake Goble
Best Costume Design
Jackie
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Allied
What should win: The Handmaiden
What will win: La La Land
There’s perhaps no clearer “should win” than in this category, and the film in question isn’t even nominated. Oh, South Korea, what were you thinking? Granted, The Handmaiden might have given the Academy the vapors, but my god, the costumes! Its home country’s failure to submit it for consideration may have doomed Park Chan-wook’s thrilling piece of imperialist noir, but come on, just look at it. In its absence, La La Land will sweep this award in with the rest, as cute dresses are never a bad thing. Jackie may give it a run for its money, thanks to Natalie Portman’s drunken mid-film costume parade, and Fantastic Beasts earned its nod for Seraphnia Picquery’s headwear alone. Still, since this isn’t The Handmaiden’s to win, it’s La La Land’s to lose.
–Allison Shoemaker
Best Production Design
La La Land
Passengers
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
What should win: La La Land
What will win: La La Land
Arrival? Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them? Passengers? Too steely. Not enough color. Too sci-fi/fantasy. We want Crayola.
The two strongest opportunities in the category go to the films with an amiable studio vibe. And it’s funny, because one can’t help draw the parallels between Hail, Caesar! and La La Land in this category. Both films look to deliberately recreate that 1950’s L.A. chic, but to very different designs. Jess Gonchor, and Nancy Haigh (both worked on No Country for Old Men) painstakingly remade studio era minutiae in the Coens’ film farce. The incomplete sets and behind-scenes irony mixed with the perfectly articulated genre decorations made Hail, Caesar! delightfully designed and witty.
But then there’s La La Land’s unusual, ambitious, and postmodern take on all that. David and Sandy Reynolds-Wasco (both worked on QT’s Kill Bills and Inglourious Basterds) boldly, unabashedly look to Technicolor things up with loud and proud monochromatic sets and stages. La La Land has this dual life of being both venerable to sets and color and obviously flashy artifice, all while layering that on top of a realistic modern Los Angeles. Plus, it fits the film’s themes of new and old bracingly. It’s a daring duality that demands attentions.
–Blake Goble
Best Sound Editing/Mixing
La La Land (Editing/Mixing)
Hacksaw Ridge (Editing/Mixing)
Arrival (Editing/Mixing)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Editing)
13 Hours (Editing)
Deepwater Horizon (Mixing)
Sully (Mixing)
What should win: La La Land
What will win: La La Land
Apologies to the war movies, AT-ACT Walkers, emergency landings, and alien spaceships on this list, but sometimes the littlest things are the most impressive. Take “Another Day of Sun,” the catchiest tune from La La Land, which also serves as the film’s opener. From a random cacophony of traffic emerges a song, which lives, grows, and when the back of a moving van opens, explodes with jubilant percussion. One last triumphant swell and it’s gone, and the sonic tapestry returns to the mundane, but somehow it still feels musical. Such is the case throughout La La Land—a song never feels far from the surface, and that’s a more staggering accomplishment than even the most bad-ass lightsaber battle.
–Allison Shoemaker
Best Actress
Emma Stone, La La Land
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Ruth Negga, Loving
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Who should win: Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Who will win: Emma Stone, La La Land
This is one of the strongest Best Actress fields in recent memory—Amy Adams, Annette Bening, Taraji P. Henson, and Kate Beckinsale could all have made the cut, and that’s dismissing dark horses like Rebecca Hall (for Christine), Royalty Hightower (for The Fits), and Hailee Steinfeld (for the criminally underrated The Edge of Seventeen). With the possible exception of Streep, who’s great, but not that great, in Florence Foster Jenkins, any of these women could win and we’d have few complaints. Still, our pick would have to be Golden Globe winner and goddamn legend Isabelle Huppert, whose nuanced, unsettling work in Paul Verhoeven’s controversial Elle will be talked about for many years to come.
Still, Emma Stone is likely to dance away with this one, and while we’d prefer Huppert (or Portman, for that matter), it’s tough to argue with that. Stone gives such a warm and inviting performance that it’s easy to overlook that Mia’s somewhat underdeveloped as a character, and she carries “The Audition,” the film’s most undeniably affecting scene, all by herself. It’s a towering performance, and while it’s easy to wish that La La Land gave Stone the kind of meaty material that Huppert, Portman, and Ruth Negga all had to work with, you can’t deny that the results speak for themselves. She’ll win, and when she’s robbed for something more substantive in the future, we’ll all be glad she snagged a statue back in the day.
–Allison Shoemaker
Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Denzel Washington, Fences
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Who should win: Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
Who will win: Gosling or Affleck with Washington as a dark horse
One of the evening’s hardest categories to call in 2017 is Best Actor. Of course, Viggo Mortensen won’t win in his second career nomination (his other was 2007’s Eastern Promises) for a movie that most people don’t even know exists. And relative youngster Andrew Garfield would be a miracle to take home an award for his portrayal of Corporal Desmond T. Doss in Hacksaw Ridge, his first career nomination. No, it comes down to three actors all with very different narratives. If we’re talking pure chops, the award should go to Casey Affleck, nominated for the first time since The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford in 2007 but fighting off resurfaced allegations of sexual harassment. Ryan Gosling, nominated for the second time (2006’s Half Nelson) could also conceivably win if the charm of singing and dancing is enough for voters to overlook the polarizing reaction of some critics hating the idea of a white dude saving jazz. If Affleck and Gosling both get taken down by their transgressions, be it real life or on film, then Denzel Washington could pull of a surprise win. He’s already won twice (1990’s Glory and 2002’s Training Day) and been nominated four other times, making him practically the dude version of Meryl Streep. Still, if we had to pick, we’re guessing it’s Affleck by a nose.
–Philip Cosores
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Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea
Who should win: Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Who will win: Viola Davis, Fences
There are arguments to be made for all five of the performances nominated for Best Supporting Actress. Both Octavia Spencer and Nicole Kidman are past Oscar winners, but their performances lack the same buzz as those they are competing with. Michelle Williams has never won in two previous nominations (Brokeback Mountain and Blue Valentine), but her emotionally stunning appearance in Manchester By the Sea might not have enough screentime to warrant a win. That leaves the two strongest candidates: Naomie Harris and Viola Davis. Harris is a revelation in Moonlight, playing a drug addicted mother of the film’s protagonist that’s equally heartbreaking and menacing. But it’s hard to bet against Viola Davis, who lost two previous nominations (2012’s The Help and 2009’s Doubt. Davis already has a Tony award for this same role and recently added an Emmy award to her mantle. If it comes down to a dead heat between the two of them, Davis might win just on recognition alone.
–Philip Cosores
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water *
Dev Patel, Lion
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Who should win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Who will win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
As the left-field benevolent savior to Moonlight‘s Chiron, Mahershala Ali is arguably the greatest part of Barry Jenkins’ drama, exuding so much passion and humanity into the role that’s impossible to ignore or forget. Which is why at the beginning of the year, he was believed to be a lock for Best Supporting Actor all throughout awards season. Then Aaron Taylor-Johnson took home the Golden Globe and reality set in: Not everyone’s seen Moonlight. The Oscars are different, though, which is why we’re more likely to see Ali step up and take his rightful prize. But … let’s snap back into reality once more: You’ve got Jeff Bridges in the corner, and let’s face it, Hell or High Water likely isn’t getting any other awards. The same could be said for underrated champ Michael Shannon, whose turn in Nocturnal Animals was nothing short of remarkable. Both could be dark horse winners, and as the old adage goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice … well, we’re fucking idiots. We stand by Ali, though.
–Michael Roffman
Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight *
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Who should win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land or Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Who will win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
There are so many ways you can make this category interesting: For starters, there’s Barry Jenkins, who could be the first black filmmaker to win Best Director. (Past nominees have only included John Singleton, Lee Daniels, and Steve McQueen. Yeah, we’ll let that sink in for a minute.) There’s Mel Gibson, who’s anti-Semitic fall from grace makes this comeback seemingly unprecedented. There’s Damien Chazelle, who’s graduating at a pace that’s near-Spielbergian. There’s Kenneth Lonergan, who couldn’t have made a more perfect film. And finally, there’s Denis Villeneuve, a brazen visionary who’s quickly climbing the ranks to match the likes of Quentin Tarantino or Paul Thomas Anderson. A win could change the fate of any of these filmmakers, but hardly as much as Jenkins, whose Moonlight continues to exist in its namesake to the general public. Still, we wouldn’t be too disappointed if the Academy does the obvious and goes with Chazelle. To go from Whiplash to La La Land in a matter of two years is just baffling.
–Michael Roffman
