Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

Shrug, fix yourself a drink, and save your big bets for a more predictable awards show

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Let’s allow Caroline Framke of Vox to kick this off for us, with a succinct reminder about our favorite drunken aunt of an awards show: Globes gonna Globe.

Based on its placement in the run-up to the Oscars, as well as its often entertaining (read: open bar) awards ceremony, the Globes often get treated as a weather vane for what’s to come. It’s easy to understand why: something wins big in the Musical or Comedy category before the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has finished submitting its nominations, and all of a sudden it’s got momentum. It’s already racking up prizes! Winners have given charming, perhaps slightly tipsy speeches! A moderate hit becomes a bigger one! On the flip side, maybe a heralded film in a crowded field gets shut out, and there are whispers of a snub. Thinkpieces are written — Why Are We Ignoring That Movie? Suddenly, voting for one of several great films becomes something of a righteous act. And, of course, there’s a possibility of backlash or boredom. Life comes at you fast, even if you’re a movie star.

With all that, is it any wonder that the Globes feel bigger and more significant each year? What all that buzz and press hides, however, is that this is a mercurial group with a small voting base who are consistent in only one respect: they’re all over the place. That’s how you get previous wins for Gina Rodriguez and Rachel Bloom followed by radio silence, or plenty of love for Call Me by Your Name, though none in the categories of Screenplay or Director. It makes for an interesting list with some unexpected (and often welcome) names — looking at you, SMILF! — but also with loads of seemingly inexplicable snubs. That’s the Globes. That, and loads of alcohol.

So, here we are, and though you likely have a number of complaints about this roster — we sure do — it sure as hell isn’t a boring lineup. What follows are our sometimes disgruntled, sometimes delighted picks for who should win and our totally baseless predictions for who will. Consider them our personal shots in the dark, but I wouldn’t put any money down. After all, Globes gonna Globe. We’ll be watching, drinks in hand, on January 7th.

—Allison Shoemaker
Senior Writer

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Best Animated Feature Film

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The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

What Should Win: Coco
What Will Win: Coco

What a time to be alive, when The Boss Baby can go from a goofy Twitter meme to a Golden Globes nominee in less than a year flat. But yeah, this one goes to the Pixar movie, both because it’s a Pixar movie and because Coco is one of the studio’s best outings in recent years. In a less stacked year for film overall, you’d be hearing a lot more about it as a possible Best Picture nominee. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Foreign Language Film

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A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

What Should Win: The Square
What Will Win: The Square

This is an exceptionally strong category all around, but our money goes with what’s probably the highest-profile offering on hand that isn’t directed by Angelina Jolie. Not only did The Square take top honors at this year’s Cannes Film Festival, but artists love movies about art, and its fanged take on the vapid, money-driven world of modern art exhibition seems to be right up the Globes’ alley. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Screenplay, Motion Picture

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The Shape of Water
Lady Bird
The Post
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Molly’s Game

Who Should Win: Lady Bird
Who Will Win: The Shape of Water

Before you start tearing your hair out (as we did) over the exclusion of probable Oscar nominees like Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, and The Emoji Movie, take a deep breath and note the omission of either ‘original’ or ‘adapted’ above. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association doesn’t distinguish between the two categories, so this category is always a little odd. Lady Bird’s thoughtful, compassionate coming-of-age story should snatch a win here, but we’re guessing the widespread love for Guillermo Del Toro’s Cold War fish man romance will sweep it to victory here, as well. –Allison Shoemaker

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Best Original Score, Motion Picture

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Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
John Williams, The Post
Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk

Who Should Win: Jonny Greenwood
Who Will Win: Hans Zimmer

Our pick (and the Globes, we think) will go to the two composers doing really radical stuff: we love Zimmer blurring the lines between score and sound design in Dunkirk, but the haunting, unsettling strings and piano of Jonny Greenwood’s work on Phantom Thread gets the pick from us (mostly because we expect some There Will Be Blood shenanigans will happen due to the heavy use of existing classical music in the film). –Clint Worthington

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Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

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Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World

Who Should Win: Willem Dafoe
Who Will Win: Willem Dafoe

To say the least, it’s a bit unusual to see a nomination for Plummer, given that a) nobody’s really seen All the Money in the World as of this writing, and b) it’s a performance shot under the gun in just a few days’ time. But hey, if his Spacey-supplanting work is good enough for the HFPA, it’ll hopefully be good enough for the rest of us. Anyway, for all of the great performances in this category, the day and probably most of the upcoming awards season will belong to Dafoe’s humane portrayal of a motel owner forced to walk the line between empathizing with his embattled residents and doing his job. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

 Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Who Should Win: Laurie Metcalf
Who Will Win: Allison Janney

Globes voters will be particularly hard-pressed to pick between fierce, protective mamas in Metcalf and Janney, but the rest of the field is fairly solid. Spencer’s performance is fantastic, but suffers from the rest of the ensemble being just as impeccable, and Chau does fine work in Downsizing, but struggles to overcome the script’s suspect racial politics (and the character’s pidgin English). Personally, we think Metcalf’s work in Lady Bird is revelatory and deserves recognition, but it’s possible that Janney’s brio in the showier film of the two might pull her through. –Clint Worthington

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Best Director, Motion Picture

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Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World

Who should win: Christopher Nolan
Who will win: Christopher Nolan

Christopher Nolan built his career by bringing grandeur, elegance, and a sweeping vision to classic genre, with his oeuvre encompassing everything from crime (Memento, Insomnia) to sci-fi (Inception, Interstellar) to action (The Dark Knight). War epics like Dunkirk have always been awards fodder, but Nolan’s breathless, breakneck approach gives the sober material a sense of immediacy and danger that jibes with both his vision and what the Hollywood cognoscenti values in a historical document. —Randall Colburn

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical

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Steve Carrell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Who Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya (or the inexplicably absent Kumail Nanjiani)
Who Will Win: James Franco

Is Get Out a comedy? It sure as shit isn’t a musical. Who cares — Kaluuya gives one of the year’s best performances in Jordan Peele’s horror hit, and a general absence of that particular genre from most ceremonies means it’s likely we won’t be seeing his name much from here on out. We’d have loved to see a nomination for Nanjiani, the co-writer and star of summertime gem The Big Sick, but it’s hard to argue with a win for fellow writer-actor (and director!) Franco. That is, unless Hugh Jackman rides in on a sparkly elephant and steals the thing. –Allison Shoemaker

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical

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Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker

Who Should Win: Saoirse Ronan
Who Will Win: Margot Robbie

Awards tend to gravitate towards actors that “dress down” with makeup, wigs, and, in this instance, braces for a role. Robbie exudes a brash, boldly unlikable aura in I, Tonya while still emerging as a strong and sympathetic figure, but there is a certain level of affectation to the character’s physical manifestation. Ronan’s performance, on the other hand, not only brims with humor and vulnerability, but also represents the steadily rising trend in art of finally offering honest, insightful portraits of millennial coming-of-age narratives. –Randall Colburn

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama

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Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who Will Win: Tom Hanks

In what’s shaken out to be an absurdly stacked year for great performances across the board, this is one of the harder categories to call. Chalamet’s turn in Call Me is the very definition of a star-maker, Oldman disappears into his Winston Churchill, and Washington does some of his most emotionally complex work in years in Roman. But while it’s hard to ever bet against Day-Lewis, particularly in what may well be his final onscreen performance, the Globes love a household name, and they love Steven Spielberg, and we have a funny feeling that the combination of those two will be enough to get Hanks some love here. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama

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Meryl Streep, The Post
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game

Who Should Win: Sally Hawkins
Who Will Win: Meryl Streep … and that is A-Okay

Apologies, but we cannot comment on All the Money in the World at this time. (We’re not as cool with the access like the HFPA.) But we can talk about four dazzling performances in the field of Best Actress. Cheerily. McDormand raged, and Chastain played. But Streep owned that damn Post, and for whatever faults Spielberg’s rush job newsie may have had, Streep was flawless as Kay Graham, turning around some of her heartiest, most in-depth work in years. That said, for our money, we loved Sally Hawkins’ expressive, hushed performance in The Shape of Water. As a amute cleaning woman, she emoted harder and stronger than most scene-chewing actors do in a lifetime. –Blake Goble

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Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical     

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Lady Bird
Get Out
I, Tonya
The Disaster Artist
The Greatest Showman

What Should Win: Lady Bird
What Will Win: Lady Bird

Spoiler alert: when we release our Top 25 Films of the Year this week, four of these five nominees will be featured in the mix. One of them wasn’t eligible, but we have our trepidations about whether it’d have made the cut anyway. For all of the debate about Get Out being considered a comedy (for our money, it’s more a comedy than a drama, even though it’s a horror thriller above all), Jordan Peele’s directorial debut would have a major shot if it weren’t up against Greta Gerwig’s, which happens to be one of the best movies of 2017. Lady Bird begins its ascent to the Oscar summit here. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Motion Picture, Drama

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Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Who Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
Who Will Win: The Post

We could quibble about this group of nominees — and we will, in fact, given that some of the year’s best films were left in the dust. Still, this is a solid group of films, and Luca Guadagnino’s sensual and sumptuous romance would be a more than worthy winner. There’s a chance it would win, as could Dunkirk or the momentum-heavy The Shape of Water. But a movie about the importance of a free press, as nominated by a bunch of journalists? Come on. –Allison Shoemaker

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or TV Movie

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David Harbour, Stranger Things
Alfred Molina, Feud: Bette and Joan
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
Alexander Skarsgard, Big Little Lies
David Thewlis, Fargo

Who Should Win: David Harbour
Who Will Win: Alexander Skarsgard

Big Little Lies is rightly getting a lot of attention from the Globes right now, so they’re the most likely to reward Skarsgard here, despite Kidman and Witherspoon getting more oxygen. Slater and Thewlis have uphill battles for their work in divisive third seasons of their respective shows, but we have to give it to Hawkins, Indiana’s favorite dad-bodied face-puncher, David Harbour, from Stranger Things. He’s a fan favorite for good reason, so let’s hope the Globes see it our way. –Clint Worthington

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or TV Movie

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Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
Chrissy Metz, This Is Us
Michelle Pfeiffer, The Wizard of Lies
Shailene Woodley, Big Little Lies

Who Should Win: Laura Dern, Twin Peaks: The Return
Who Will Win: Laura Dern, Big Little Lies

First of all, this category is too damn broad. Second, some of these inclusions are baffling — Michelle Pfeiffer is a goddess, but nothing in The Wizard of Lies comes close to best of the year. Third, in a great year for comedy, would it kill the HFPA to throw us a Donna Lynne Champlin (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend) or an Anna Chlumsky (Veep)? Hell, not even a Kate McKinnon?

Whatever. Laura Dern was wonderful in Big Little Lies, and if they can’t give Diane a chance to say “fuck you” in an awards ceremony, at least we can watch her grab a trophy all the same. –Allison Shoemaker

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Best Actor in a Series, Limited Series, or TV Movie

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Robert De Niro, The Wizard of Lies
Jude Law, The Young Pope
Kyle MacLachlan, Twin Peaks
Ewan McGregor, Fargo
Geoffrey Rush, Genius

Who Should Win: Kyle MacLachlan
Who Will Win: Kyle MacLachlan

Look, it’s already bullshit that Twin Peaks was snubbed beyond any logical reason. So, seeing how this is the sole nomination, it by proxy belongs to Kyle MacLachlan. But, it’s also deserved: Out of the 237 actors that made up Lynch and Frost’s 18-hour spectacle, nobody shouldered more weight than MacLachlan, who played about a half-dozen different versions of himself. This gold’s for Dougie. —Michael Roffman

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Best Actress in a Series, Limited Series, or TV Movie

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Jessica Biel, The Sinner
Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies
Jessica Lange, Feud: Bette and Joan
Susan Sarandon, Feud: Bette and Joan
Reese Witherspoon, Big Little Lies

Who Should Win: Reese Witherspoon
Who Will Win: Nicole Kidman

Witherspoon was the real standout on Big Little Lies, but Kidman’s pivot to TV has been one of the more successful among the many performers making the leap to the small screen. Her performance on Top of the Lake, in particular, was even more scorching and soulful than her work on Big Little Lies, and the weight of her ubiquity in 2017 is likely to influence the voters. —Randall Colburn

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Best Series, Limited Series, or TV Movie

 Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

Big Little Lies
Fargo
Feud: Bette and Joan
The Sinner
Top of the Lake: China Girl

Who should win: Twin Peaks, where are you?
Who will win: Big Little Lies

The Globes really fumbled in this category — The Sinner? Are you kidding me? — and since David Lynch and Mark Frost’s critically acclaimed 18-part The Return was cruelly snubbed, we’re going all in on HBO’s Big Little Lies, which essentially conquered the television noms. Granted, David E. Kelley and Jean-Marc Vallée’s drama has already been picked up for a second season, which makes this category somewhat curious, but there’s no denying that the series was one of the best things HBO put out all year. –Michael Roffman

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Best Performance by an Actor in TV Series, Musical or Comedy

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Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Kevin Bacon, I Love Dick
William H. Macy, Shameless
Eric McCormack, Will & Grace

Who Should Win: Ted Danson, The Good Pl– well, shit.
Who Will Win: Eric McCormack

Listen, each of these fellows gives a good-to-great performance on the show for which they’re nominated, which is to say that while Eric McCormack’s Will Truman may not be your cup of tea, he delivers exactly what’s required of him in fine fashion. We can’t have Danson, who did more with one smile in The Good Place than many actors do in a season. Thus, Ansari would probably be our pick from this lineup, as he’s pulling double-duty as Master of None’s creator as well as its star. Still, expect McCormack to pick up a trophy — this is his sixth Globe nomination for this role. Consider it a mid-lifetime achievement award. –Allison Shoemaker

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Best Performance by an Actress in TV Series, Musical or Comedy

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Pamela Adlon, Better Things
Alison Brie, GLOW
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Issa Rae, Insecure
Frankie Shaw, SMILF

Who Should Win: Rachel Brosnahan
Who Will Win: Rachel Brosnahan

These are all great! It’s wonderful! Alison Brie is a total blast in GLOW, and Issa Rae and Pamela Adlon get major bonus points for giving great performances in shows they created. Brosnahan, however, is having a moment in a late-arriving series that picked up steam head-spinningly fast. It helps that she’s also terrific, and all things being equal, we’ll give this one to the, ahem, marvelous Mrs. Maisel of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. – Allison Shoemaker

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Best TV Series, Musical or Comedy

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Black-ish
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Master of None
SMILF
Will & Grace

Who should win: Oh, who the hell knows. Master of None.
Who will win: Oh, who the hell knows. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel?

Most of these shows are pretty good, but not one of them is the Best Musical or Comedy on television. First of all, the omission of a show that’s both — that would be The CW’s remarkable Crazy Ex-Girlfriend — is an expected oversight, but an oversight nonetheless. What’s more unexpected is the omission of NBC’s The Good Place, the buzziest comedy to hit network television in a good, long while. Since neither of those shows can win, we’d be happy with some love for Black-ish, Mrs. Maisel, or our pick, Aziz Ansari’s ambitious Netflix series. Amazon’s Maisel is legitimately great with a ton of momentum, so look for a win for it here. If Will & Grace takes it, we riot. –Allison Shoemaker

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Best Performance by an Actor in TV Series, Drama

thisisus Golden Globes 2018: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Freddie Highmore, The Good Doctor
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan

Who Should Win: Bob Odenkirk
Who Will Win: Sterling K. Brown

Did anyone even see Ozark? It’s the kind of show tailor-made to fulfill Netflix contracts and serve as a vanity project for its star and nothing else. While we’re at it, the Globes still feel like rewarding crowd-pleasing, septuagenarian-friendly network shows like The Good Doctor and (yes, I said it) This Is Us. For our money, we still think Odenkirk deserves it for a stellar season three of Better Call Saul and one of the most intriguingly developed spin-off characters in recent memory. –Clint Worthington

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Best Performance by an Actress in TV Series, Drama

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Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Claire Foy, The Crown
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Deuce
Katherine Langford, 13 Reasons Why
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

Who should win: Elisabeth Moss
Who will win: Elisabeth Moss

Throw a dart at this category and you’ve got a worthy winner, and while there are some absences that sting — in particular, we’d trade almost any of those names for Alias Grace’s Sarah Gadon and would offer up a semi-vital organ to see Carrie Coon get the Leftovers statue she deserves — this year likely belongs to Moss. The first three hours of The Handmaid’s Tale are perhaps the three best episodes of television this year, and if the series faltered after that, none of it has a thing to do with Moss’ fierce, indelible performance. –Allison Shoemaker

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Best TV Series, Drama

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The Crown
Game of Thrones
The Handmaid’s Tale
Stranger Things
This Is Us

Who Should Win: The Handmaid’s Tale
Who Will Win: This Is Us

Listen, The Handmaid’s Tale is excellent. It’s not our pick for the year’s best drama, but it’s a really solid choice. If nothing else, the first three episodes are an incredible achievement and should be the first step to making director Reed Morano a household name. Elisabeth Moss, Ann Dowd, and Alexis Bledel excel, and that dread word “timely” definitely applies.

It’s also not a massive hit on a major network with just a hint of prestige gloss. This category really could go any way, but at the end of the day, This Is Us seems the likely winner. We may be Under His Eye, but I’d bet on the Pearsons. –Allison Shoemaker

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