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Golden Globes 2019: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

The 76th annual ceremony is full of races that are almost too close to call

The Americans, A Star is Born, Black Panther, Sharp Objects
The Americans, A Star is Born, Black Panther, Sharp Objects
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Pop culture in the internet age moves pretty fast sometimes. If you don’t slow down and enjoy it every once in a while, you might miss it.

Even as another year’s award season brings with it renewed debates about what purpose awards shows serve in the era of democratized entertainment, we’re moved to read about and watch alike as celebrities receive statues and we, as the viewer, somehow feel that a celebrated cause of our own is being honored.

It’s a little silly, sure, but it’s still a fun and relatively harmless way for audiences to step back and take stock of some of their favorite movies and TV shows, while also arguing with others about their own favorites. (We say “relatively” harmless, because Suicide Squad has an Oscar thanks to this whole process. People don’t forget. We didn’t.)

This Sunday, January 6th, the 76th Annual Golden Globes goes down, giving celebrities another excuse to get drunk as they accept their statues while also giving audiences a reason to get drunk as they heckle the ceremony’s skits. In what proved to be a phenomenal year for both art forms, the races are as hard to call as they’ve ever been.

But fear not: We’ve assembled a primer that you can consider for your predictions and/or soft wagering at parties. (Of course, we also couldn’t help but slip in our own personal picks as well.) Keep these in mind come Sunday, and feel free to join us online as we offer up-to-date coverage throughout the evening. If anything, it’ll give you an opportunity to laugh at any we got wrong … and silently applaud those we got right.

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Best Animated Feature Film

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

What Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
What Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Anybody who’s been paying attention to the awards season race so far will notice that these five nominees read like a list of usual suspects in the Animation category. After all, it wasn’t exactly a breakout year otherwise, and even some of the films present would draw a contention or two from various members of our film staff. But without belaboring the point any further, we’ll just say that Into the Spider-Verse is going to win, and deservedly so. It’s likely going to keep winning all the way to, if there’s any justice, the Oscars. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Foreign Language Film

Roma (Netflix)

Roma (Netflix)

Capernaum
Girl
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

What Should Win: Roma
What Will Win: Roma

It’s been an all-around great year in this category, to the point where if there weren’t a monolith in the midst, we’d have a hard time calling it for 2019. But Roma has become an arthouse phenomenon in the weeks since its Netflix rollout, a must-see revival of the kind of personal, sweeping filmmaking that populated some of film’s best eras. It’s one of Consequence’s favorite films of last year, but then, so is Shoplifters. Hell, even Capernaum and Never Look Away drew individual year-end votes. There are a lot of great movies coming out from all around the world, if you’re able to find them. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Screenplay, Motion Picture

The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)

The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)

The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
Vice, Adam McKay
Green Book, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga and Brian Hayes Currie
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón

What Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
What Will Win: The Favourite

Even if they’ll be split up come Oscars time, you can bet that all of the films nominated by the Globes in the Screenplay category will be up for the top prizes in late February as well. The honor we’d most love to see would be one for Barry Jenkins, who managed the remarkable feat of capturing and translating James Baldwin’s unmistakable command of tone to the screen. No small feat, there. But we’ll hardly be upset if, and likely when, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara take the prize for their searingly funny work on The Favourite. It’s a real fav … never mind. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Original Score, Motion Picture

Black Panther (Marvel)

Black Panther (Marvel)

Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs
Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns
Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther
Justin Hurwitz, First Man
Marco Beltrami, A Quiet Place

Who Should Win: Justin Hurwitz
Who Will Win: Ludwig Göransson

Score is a tough category this year, at least for the Golden Globes, because there really isn’t an obvious frontrunner. Also, there are several notable composers missing. Where is Beale Street‘s Nicholas Britell? Or BlackKklansman‘s Terence Blanchard? So, judging from this crop, especially with the curious inclusion of Marco Beltrami, it’s probably going to come down to name recognition alone. That gives Desplat and Hurwitz, two darlings of the awards circuit, a favorable edge, but then you have to remember that Black Panther is the big blockbuster of the bunch. With that in mind, we’re going to gamble and say this one goes to Wakanda, but we would be equally stoked if Hurwitz’s dreamy atmospheres won, too. —Michael Roffman

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Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Green Book (Universal)

Green Book (Universal)

Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
Sam Rockwell – Vice
Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman

Who Should Win: Adam Driver
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Wanna know how you can tell the Globes go by names? Sam Rockwell’s inclusion over his on-screen colleague Steve Carell. The former sticks out in Adam McKay’s political farce like a sore thumb, while the latter gives the weighty supporting performance. Grievances aside, that helps us pare down the nominees in this selection to one name: Mahershala Ali. Not only is he a recent awards champ for Moonlight, but he also has been at the forefront of the outstanding hype for the not-so-outstanding Green Book. The dark horse is Adam Driver, who steals every scene in Spike Lee’s historical drama, and if he manages to come out ahead of everyone, we’ll drop our wine come Sunday night.  –Michael Roffman

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Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna Pictures)

If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna Pictures)

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Amy Adams, Vice
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man

Who Should Win: Regina King
Who Will Win: Regina King

The strange ongoing debate about where exactly The Favourite‘s leading trio belongs in terms of awards categorization continues, but in the meantime, Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone (who both have leading screen time, seriously, why is this a thing) will have to avoid splitting the category for their excellent work. Claire Foy garners the only top-category nomination for the otherwise slept-on First Man, alongside Amy Adams for her quietly eerie work as Lynne Cheney. For our money, though, the top winner at so many ceremonies up to this point will continue onward here. Regina King has been doing outstanding work for decades, and we hope she’ll continue to be recognized for one of her most felt performances yet. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Director, Motion Picture

Roma (Netflix)

Roma (Netflix)

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Adam McKay, Vice
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Who Should Win: Spike Lee
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Amazing that half of the team behind Me, Myself, and Irene is gaining serious year-end buzz as a director. But while Peter Farrelly’s career reinvention has yielded impressive results, our attention lies elsewhere, and we assume the HFPA’s will as well. We’ve already argued that Spike Lee was the filmmaker of 2018, and will continue to do so, but whether his contentious feature will draw enough defenders remains to be seen. The safer bet seems to be Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, which pairs an oft-honored filmmaker with near-universal acclaim. We’d hardly be upset either way. —Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical

Vice (Annapurna)

Vice (Annapurna)

Christian Bale, Vice
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie

Who Should Win: Christian Bale
Who Will Win: Christian Bale

I’ve said it once, I’ll say it again: Best Actor is Christian Bale’s to lose in 2019, especially if Ethan Hawke of First Reformed is nowhere to be seen. For the Globes, Bale’s a lock, if only for his transformative performance. Well, he did get fat for this, thinks the average voter. In this case, though, they’re actually right, not that he just got fat (he did), but he delivered a hell of a performance — one of his best, which says something given his career. –Michael Roffman

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical

The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)

The Favourite (Fox Searchlight)

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Who Should Win: Olivia Colman
Who Will Win: Olivia Colman

There’s a pretty wide swath of definitions for “comedy” represented in this category. The cringing realism of Charlize Theron’s work as a mother struggling to retain a sense of self collides with Constance Wu’s pitch-perfect update of the romantic comedy heroine for a new era. Emily Blunt spends most of Mary Poppins Returns looking like she’s having about as much fun as an actor’s ever had, and Elsie Fisher gave one of our favorite leading turns in 2018, period. Olivia Colman, however, is in a class all her own, granting a simultaneous humanity and terror to her Queen Anne that we can’t shake. The HFPA likely won’t be able to either. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama

Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga in A Star Is Born 2018

A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.)

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Who Should Win: Bradley Cooper
Who Will Win: Bradley Cooper

Sure, Bohemian Rhapsody is the big blockbuster, and Rami Malek does the whole transformative thing like Bale, but there’s no real narrative to his win. The same goes for anyone else in this category, except for Bradley Cooper. A Star is Born is a legit frontrunner this season, and there surprisingly hasn’t been much backlash surrounding it, at least not to the level of, say, La La Land back in 2016/17. Politics aside, Cooper deserves this, though, as he pours his heart and soul into his performance in the same manner he does behind the camera. And seeing how there’s no way he wins Director over Cuaron, the Globes will likely credit him here as Jackson “Eddie Vedder” Maine. –Michael Roffman

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama

A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.)

A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.)

Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

Who Should Win: Lady Gaga
Who Will Win: Lady Gaga

Simply put, there is absolutely no way Lady Gaga loses this award. –Michael Roffman

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Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical

Green Book (Universal)

Green Book (Universal)

The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Crazy Rich Asians
Vice

What Should Win: The Favourite
What Will Win: Green Book

This one, as much as any category this year, is still anybody’s guess. Including ours. It really depends on what the HFPA sees fit to honor this year. Will it be the charming traditionalism of Poppins? The ferocious political cynicism of Vice? The lavish (and hugely successful) charm of Crazy Rich Asians? We’d love to see Yorgos Lanthimos’ mainstream breakthrough The Favourite take the top prize in advance of the Oscars announcements to further solidify its place, but we have a sneaking suspicion that it’ll be Green Book, a crowd-pleaser for the kind of crowd voting on this sort of thing. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Motion Picture, Drama

A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)

A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)

A Star is Born
If Beale Street Could Talk
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
Black Panther

What Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
What Will Win: A Star is Born

A Star is Born is great. It’s wonderful. In fact, it’s kind of unreal how wonderful it is, considering how it comes off like your typical awards favorite on the surface. That’s why it’s the quintessential Golden Globes movie and for once we’re totally fine with that. However, there is a possibility that Black Panther might eek out a win — you know, being a global phenomenon and all — but that’s about it. And even that’s a stretch. Of course, in a perfect world, we’d like to see Spike Lee go up there and stare down the crowd with eyes that say, “How about that?” In a perfect world. –Michael Roffman

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or TV Movie

Barry (HBO)

Barry (HBO)

Henry Winkler, Barry
Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Kieran Culkin, Succession

Who Should Win: Kieran Culkin
Who Will Win: Henry Winkler

Kieran Culkin is last year’s Kyle MacLachlan, the sole nominee in a sorely snubbed show. So, odds are that he doesn’t win, which is a shame because HBO’s Succession absolutely deserves the majority of the accolades here. But, whatever. We’re totally fine with Arthur Fonzarelli adding more trophies to his shelf, namely because he’s just so goddamn charming in Barry, and that speech of his will be all kinds of cute. –Michael Roffman

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or TV Movie

Sharp Objects (HBO)

Sharp Objects (HBO)

Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale

Who Should Win: Patricia Clarkson
Who Will Win: Patricia Clarkson

While all three of the returning series nominees here did standout work on their respective shows, even as each of those shows experienced varying degrees of the sophomore slump, we’re looking to the limited series nominees for a winner this year. Penelope Cruz was excellent as Donatella Versace, drawing out the simultaneous grief of loss and necessities of business that drove her in the months following the titular murder. But Patricia Clarkson was pure southern venom in Sharp Objects, a force of passive-aggressive terror. She leaves the kind of mark that wins awards, you could say. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Actor in a Limited Series, or TV Movie

The Assassination of Gianni Versace (FX)

The Assassination of Gianni Versace (FX)

Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso
Daniel Bruhl, The Alienist
Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal

Who Should Win: Darren Criss
Who Will Win: Darren Criss

::glances at list of names:: Duh, Darren Criss—Michael Roffman

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Best Actress in a Limited Series, or TV Movie

Sharp Objects (HBO)

Sharp Objects (HBO)

Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Connie Britton, Dirty John
Laura Dern, The Tale
Regina King, Seven Seconds

Who Should Win: Laura Dern
Who Will Win: Amy Adams

Holy crap, what a category of performers. That’s just to start. Our hopes are with Laura Dern, whose stunning work in The Tale made for one of our favorite 2018 performances in any medium. However, we have a feeling that Sharp Objects is going to have a pretty big showing in its eligible categories this year, and Amy Adams’ vicious leading work stands up as both one of her best turns, and one unlike anything else she’s done to date. —Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best Limited Series or TV Movie

Sharp Objects (HBO)

Sharp Objects (HBO)

The Alienist
The Assasination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Dirty John
Escape at Dannemora
Sharp Objects
A Very English Scandal

Who Should Win: The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Who Will Win: Sharp Objects

There’s so much star power emanating from HBO’s Sharp Objects, and star power is the fuel of the Globes. Another promising factor is that the series dominates every category in television this year. And, yeah, it also doesn’t hurt that Jean-Marc Vallée is involved, whose Big Little Lies ran away with nearly every award last year. Still, nobody puts Ryan Murphy in the corner, so don’t count out Versace … but don’t bet on it, either. –Michael Roffman

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Best Performance by an Actor in a TV Series, Musical or Comedy

Barry (HBO)

Barry (HBO)

Sacha Baron Cohen, Who is America?
Jim Carrey, Kidding
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry

Who Should Win: Bill Hader
Who Will Win: Bill Hader

Donald Glover is the sole nomination for Atlanta, which is laughable, yes, but also reason to probably exclude him from the betting pool. Instead, the real contenders are Sacha Baron Cohen and Bill Hader, two faces of their own series who drew insurmountable buzz last year. But, now that we look at them side by side, it’s just hard to believe that anyone else but Hader will walk away with this award. He’s the titular glue to Barry, and like Sharp Objects, Barry is all over this slate. –Michael Roffman

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Best Performance by an Actress in TV Series, Musical or Comedy

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon Prime Video)

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon Prime Video)

Kristen Bell, The Good Place
Candice Bergen, Murphy Brown
Alison Brie, GLOW
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Debra Messing, Will & Grace

Who Should Win: Kristen Bell
Who Will Win: Rachel Brosnahan

We’d love to see Candice Bergen win her first Globe since 1992 for playing the same character, but we have a feeling that the reboot’s still-murky future might play a role with voters here. The easy money has to be on last year’s winner, Rachel Brosnahan, who continues to be the absolute highlight of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. But our hearts and hopes lie with The Good Place‘s Kristen Bell, who continues to be a standout in one of TV’s absolute best ensembles as the hysterically obnoxious, never-beyond-salvation Eleanor Shellstrop. –Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best TV Series, Musical or Comedy

8a6021f217a8a61f6b6ca980081837c1a623c2da8984b15f41664d12ba249a35f0139114fe50281417bd8300f0d1c278 e1546558177902 Golden Globes 2019: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

Barry (HBO)

Barry
The Good Place
Kidding
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

What Should Win: Barry
What Will Win: Barry

Barry is new, Barry is hip, and Barry is everywhere on this year’s slate. So, Barry we go. Everything else — even your parents’ favorite show, The Kominsky Method, and Showtime’s slept-on Kidding — feels a tad old hat. But Barry? He’s a cool dude. We’re going with Barry–Michael Roffman

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Best Performance by an Actor in TV Series, Drama

The Americans (FX)

The Americans (FX)

Jason Bateman, Ozark
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Richard Madden, Bodyguard
Billy Porter, Pose
Stephan James, Homecoming

Who Should Win: Billy Porter
Who Will Win: Matthew Rhys

Look, it’s going to be Matthew Rhys, if only because the Globes love to give the award to performers on their way out of a series (see: Kyle Chandler for Friday Night Lights), and he’s yet to win (he lost two years ago). But really, there’s nothing wrong with that. Rhys was great from the very beginning of The Americans right down to its perfect end — Did you see that speech in the garage? Christ almighty! — so he deserves it and will win it. However, we’d be remiss not to mention Billy Porter, who stole every scene on Pose, and whose win would be a wonderful coup for the series.  –Michael Roffman

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Best Performance by an Actress in TV Series, Drama

The Americans (FX)

The Americans (FX)

Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Julia Roberts, Homecoming
Keri Russell, The Americans
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

Who Should win: Sandra Oh
Who Will win: Keri Russell

An outstanding bunch of performances, as we see it, will come down to arguably the year’s best-received new series and one of prestige TV’s most critic-beloved ones. Sandra Oh (and her incredible co-star Jodie Comer, which, where the hell is she?) will have more chances to pick up statues for her like-nothing-else-on-TV take on an eccentric secret agent. We think this year’s honors, across the board really, will go to a show that never had the viewership it deserved, and the actors who made it such a compelling drama over six seasons. We’re thinking that Keri Russell finally gets her Golden Globe, especially since it’s her last chance to get it for The Americans–Dominick Suzanne-Mayer

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Best TV Series, Drama

The Americans (FX)

The Americans (FX)

Homecoming
Killing Eve
The Americans
Pose
Bodyguard

Who Should Win: The Americans
Who Will Win: The Americans

FX’s The Americans has won a Peabody, it’s won several Emmys, it’s won Critics Choice awards, it’s won multiple AFI awards, but it’s never won a Golden Globe. In fact, the only time the Globes even recognized the show was two years ago — at the 74th annual installment — by giving Rhys and Russell a pat on the back, which mostly translated to free booze. Things are different now, and as we mentioned with Rhys’ forthcoming win, the Globes love to double back and award series that have finally come to an end. The Americans fits that bill and is the only one that fits that bill this year. Sure, Killing Eve could walk away with the award and no one would bat an eye, but there’s closure to The Americans winning. And people love closure. –Michael Roffman

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