Every year, we say we’re not going to watch the Golden Globes. “They’re pay-for-play opportunists who trade awards for access,” we plea in the mirror. “Remember Pia Zadora?” And yet, just like Michael Corleone in The Godfather Part III, they pull us back in. Maybe it’s the pandemic insisting upon things to look forward to amidst the threat of impending doom. Or, more likely, we just love TV and the people who make it too much to not want to root for them to get recognition — no matter how dubious the award.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, an enigmatic collective of 93 non-American journalists who nonetheless live in LA, give out their trophies every year, and the picks are virtually impossible to guess. Sometimes, it’s recognition of the best work in film and TV that year. Other times, it’s whatever buzz-worthy show or movie or performer catches their ear (or which studio influences them with lavish trips to Paris — we’re looking at you Netflix). And yet, despite our hemming and hawing about them, we still impart upon them enough cultural influence that the Globes themselves become worthy of discussion.
It’s a weird field this year: a heady mix of deserving entries and strange categorizations, seasoned veterans and hot newcomers, and an overwhelming sense of whiteness pervading the vast majority of 2021’s nominee pool. So, in light of that, we thought it might be interesting to not just try to predict who will win the Golden Globe for almost all of the categories this Sunday, but who shouldn’t even be in the field in the first place. Naturally, we share who we’d like to see in their stead.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who’s Gonna Win? My money’s on The Trial of the Chicago 7, the talkiest and most accessible of these films — Aaron Sorkin’s self-congratulatory, verbose approach, in addition to his pedigree, makes this one far more palatable to HPFA voters than the others.
Who Shouldn’t Be There? Unfortunately, the very same film that’ll win is the one that shouldn’t be here; we were mixed-to-positive in our review, but in the final estimation it’s just too shaggy and messy (and plays too Sorkin-smugly) to hold up to audiences outside the glad-handy limousine liberal crowd. In that light, it makes perfect sense why it’d have such a strong showing at the Golden Globes.
Who’s Missing? Netflix had much stronger awards candidates than Chicago 7 and maybe even Mank in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Da 5 Bloods. But befitting the Globes’ allergy to diversity, it probably tracks that they wouldn’t put those in there. Plus, Minari deserves to be in this category rather than the other one, but we’ll get to that one soon enough.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States. vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Who’s Gonna Win? Mulligan’s got some real awards heat as an elusive, complicated femme fatale in Promising Young Woman; it’s the kind of turn that holds your attention, and that tends to earn you some crowns. One can cross their fingers for Frances or Viola Davis (both giving strong performances in challenging films), but this turn feels awards-calibrated.
Who Shouldn’t Be There? The whole field is solid, though we’d maybe kick off Davis on account of Ma Rainey herself feeling incidental to the film she’s in (the original August Wilson play focuses much more on the backing band working out their issues). But that’s a super minor complaint.
Who’s Missing? I’m really missing Han Ye-ri from Minari and Nicole Beharie from Miss Juneteenth in here.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
Who’s Gonna Win? It’s an even-split between Boseman and Hopkins, most likely — do you celebrate a great final lead turn from a gone-too-soon actor, or celebrate a late-career masterclass like Hopkins puts on in The Father? Tough to say, but as a recognition of his swan song, it’ll probably go to Boseman.
Who Shouldn’t Be There? Of the field, it’s strangely Oldman who impresses the least (though admittedly, we haven’t seen The Mauritanian so we don’t have an inkling about Rahim’s performance). He’s had his flowers; I’d be happy to oust him for someone else.
Who’s Missing? I’m very sad that our predictions that Steven Yeun’s turn in Minari would lead to awards gold haven’t borne fruit yet; it deserves to, and he really should be on this list.